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I'm Really Sick Of This-Buying Cheaper Than Renting,
'Owning a home has become more than £100 a month cheaper than renting, with a w...

Gold Costs Over $800 Oz To Produce
I saw this on one of the investment newsletters I get (Proactive Investors). Av...

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As per title, one imaginary Zimbabwe $100 Trillion Dollar to the winner Attache...

A Tenner To The Charity Of Your Choice If You Can Guess The Reduction!
This house is over the road from mine. Rented out for a year. On the market for...

Interest Rates
Hi, I'm thing of buying a place of my own soon, and will require a mortgage. Th...

Jim Corzine - Borrow Early And Big
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Ghost Town
From where i am all i can see is To Let boards its happening all over again. ...

The Laws Of Economics For The Drinker And Banks
QuoteHere is a dummies guide to what went wrong in Europe: Helga is the propr...

The Wales Economy Slips, But London Cushions The Fall
QuoteLAENAU FFESTINIOG, Wales — This could have been Britain’s Greece. For ...

Tim Harford: Why Have House Prices Stayed So High?
Tim Harford muses on why house prices have stayed so high on his FT syndicated "...

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Latest: House Price Crash News

Saturday, Jan 28 2012 Add a News Blog Article

Pass the buck before the mess hits the fan.

Reuters: Treasury to take charge in next bank crisis

"The Treasury will have the power from next year to take charge in any future banking crisis, including being able to tell the Bank of England (BoE) to pump money into the financial system. Chancellor George Osborne published a draft law on Friday reforming the way Britain's financial system is regulated and setting out who has ultimate authority in a crisis" (It wasn't me Guv!)

Posted by alan @ 07:14 PM 3 Comments

Well, he didn't get that £1 million bonus

BBC News: RBS chief Hester's £963,000 bonus criticised

Hester has seen the RBS share price tumble but he's got his bonus on top of his £1.2m salary and his Long-term Incentive Plan (not mentioned in the article), which will be worth millions. All the talking heads are saying pretty much what you'd expect them to say, but no analysis of what particular skills he brings that would be difficult to acquire without the big bucks.

Posted by icarus @ 03:41 PM 8 Comments

350 workers to lose jobs at Sheerness plant too

BBC: Serco announces job losses at Hook office

Outsourcing group Serco has announced it is to cut 500 jobs, mostly at its UK head office in Hampshire.

Posted by mark @ 03:02 PM 3 Comments

Sensible article, idiot comments

Inside Housing: Do not pass go

Root cause of housing problems is hard to grasp even for Occupiers let alone banks who effectively own most of the land through mortgage assets. The founding social organisations today are privatisation of the commons: virtually tax free private property in land. And socialisation of private property: taxation of wages, salaries and investment. Is this the right way around? We’ve been taught this is economically sustainable so never question it. Yet everyone wants property because it always rises in value for free. So through each business cycle, property prices are bid upwards by expected future selling price, fuelled by limitless credit and a speculative bubble develops. The ability of people to pay the rising price for a home to live in diminishes...

Posted by mark wadsworth @ 10:19 AM 9 Comments

They struggle to admit it - bubble

Bloomberg: Expensive London Loses Allure for Commercial Property Investors on Economy

Respondents “complain about the difficulty of getting hold of assets, strong competition and bubble-like pricing,” PwC said in the report

Posted by mark @ 09:56 AM 3 Comments

British Industry at its Best

Telegraph: Cost of moving house rises 69% in ten years

Title says it all and highlights the sums of money involved in this lucrative sector of the 'service' economy.

Posted by enuii @ 08:01 AM 2 Comments

If everyone in Europe is skint won't we get a HPC?

Sky: Who Will Stump Up To Boost The IMF's Coffers?

Mme Lagarde reiterated the gravity of the situation in saying, "The IMF, being an international institution, will appeal to its members to make their contributions. European partners will also have to do more".

Posted by alan @ 08:57 PM 4 Comments

Now THAT's a crash

PropertyWire: Property price falls accelerate in parts of Ireland

Residential property prices in Ireland fell by 1.7% in December, indicating that there is still no sign of the country’s real estate market bottoming out. The latest figures from the Central Statistics Office also show that the annual rate of decline was 16.7% in December. Overall, the national index is 47% lower than its highest level in 2007.

Posted by ontheotherhand @ 05:08 PM 11 Comments

They Quote A Problem

Birmingham Mail: 99 Year Wait for Larger Council Houses

"DESPERATE Birmingham families face a 99 YEAR wait for the largest council houses, the Birmingham Mail can reveal." "The average waiting time for all housing types – including flats, maisonettes and two and three-bedroom houses – is an estimated six years." "The crisis is fuelled by the fact that 70 per cent of city residents can not afford to buy the average-sized home on their income. GOSH! Could there be a solution to all this? Hmmm . . . I wonder if it would help if house prices fell?

Posted by nomad @ 02:41 PM 2 Comments

BTL seems to be doing well

Telegraph: Buy-to-let mortgage specialist eyes acquisitions

British buy-to-let mortgage lender Paragon said it is exploring acquisition opportunities after posting a rise in quarterly profits. The company saw operating profits rise 12pc to £20.3m during the three months ending December 31, compared to a year earlier.

Posted by hpwatcher @ 12:32 PM 0 Comments

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House Price Statistics - UK National

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly change
(%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Nov 11 £205,796 N/A 0.30 Tick£221,758
(Jan 08)
7.2017/01/2012
FT House Price Index (Acadametrics) Dec 11 £220,385 0.20 0.50 Cross£231,595
(Feb 08)
4.8413/01/2012 (PDF)
Halifax House Price Index Dec 11 £160,063 0.90 1.30 Tick£199,770
(Aug 07)
19.8806/01/2012 (PDF)
Home.co.uk (England and Wales) Jan 12 N/A 0.30 0.60 Cross N/A N/A 12/01/2012 (PDF)
Hometrack - Monthly National Survey Dec 11 N/A 0.20 2.10 Cross N/A N/A 26/12/2011
Land Registry Monthly Report Nov 11 £160,780 0.30 1.90 Tick£186,045
(Jan 08)
13.5830/12/2011 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Dec 11 £163,822 0.20 1.00 Tick£186,044
(Oct 07)
11.9430/12/2011 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jan 12 £224,060 0.80 0.40 Tick£242,500
(May 08)
7.6016/01/2012 (PDF)

House Price Statistics - Greater London

Source website Period covered Average
house price
Monthly
change (%)
Quarterly
change (%)
Annual change
(%)
Archive /Graph Peak average
house price
Change since
peak (%)
Official releases
Communities and Local Government House Price Index Nov 11 £346,123 N/A N/A 3.20 Tick£351,096
(Jan 08)
1.4217/01/2012
Halifax House Price Index Q4 11 £271,628 N/A N/A 8.00 Cross£320,847
(Q3 07)
15.3420/01/2012 (PDF)
Land Registry Monthly Report Nov 11 £342,749 0.80 N/A 1.40 Tick£357,976
(Jan 08)
4.2530/12/2011 (PDF)
Nationwide House Price Index Q4 11 £298,216 N/A 2.60 5.40 Cross£303,739
(Q4 07)
1.8230/12/2011 (PDF)
Rightmove House Price Index Jan 12 £438,324 0.80 N/A 6.10 Tick£450,210
(Oct 11)
2.6416/01/2012 (PDF)

Archive of old house price surveys

House Price Predictions

If you have discovered other or revised predictions that you'd like added to this list then send an email to us with all the information for each column and also a link to a website that contains the information so that we can verify the data.

This table is now sorted by the date that the prediction was made.

Source website Analyst Photo Date prediction made Amount predicted Region Time Period Evidence Notes
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2012Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 6%UK2011Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 8.8%UK2013Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 5.8%UK2014Tick
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/AMar 2011 4.9%UK2015Tick
Jonathan DavisN/AOct 2010 40-50 % UK2007-2013Tick
New forecast set at Oct 10. Given historical reference, bank failures, credit restrictions and global economic recession.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherSep 2010 10%UK2010-2011Tick
We suspect that house prices could fall by around 10% between now and the end of 2011. Much will obviously depend on how well the economy holds up as the fiscal squeeze increasingly kicks in, mortgage availability and the amount of houses coming on to the market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasAug 2010 3.9%UK2010Tick
"During the remainder of 2010, JLL expects a decline of 3.9 per cent on current price levels, reducing the value of the average UK property by £6,500."
CEBRN/AN/AAug 2010 4%UK2010Tick
"The Centre For Economics And Business Research (CEBR) said prices will increase 4 per cent this year and continue rising until 2014, mainly due to a shortage of homes in the UK and low interest rates."
NIESRN/AN/AJul 2010 8%UK2010-2015Tick
"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) claims that prices will fall, in real terms, by about eight per cent."
Capital Economics Ltd.N/AN/AJul 2010 23%UK2010-2012Tick
"UK house prices will fall through 2012 as the deepest public-spending cuts since World War II and tighter credit conditions deter potential buyers."
Knight FrankLiam BaileyN/ADec 2009 3%UK2010Tick
Knight Frank predicts that a continuing growth in unemployment, allied to wage freezes and tax rises, and a rise in average mortgage rates will force a number of sales which, in the absence of greater depth of demand, will see prices slipping back.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasSep 2009 7%UK2010Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle's latest UK Residential Market Forecast predicts this market revival is likely to be unsustainable and a fall in prices of -7% on average is likely during 2010.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 9%UK2009Tick
Cluttons predict that house prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1.5%UK2010Tick
House prices will fall by nine per cent this year and by 1.5 per cent next year, with a peak-to-trough decline of 24 per cent
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 11%London2009Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
CluttonsThomas GroundsN/AFeb 2009 1%London2010Tick
In Central London, Cluttons predict that prices will fall by 11.0 per cent this year but will see a marginal growth of one per cent in 2010, putting the peak-to-trough decline at 29 per cent.
Market OracleAndrew ButterN/AJan 2009 33%UK2007-2012Tick
For Nationwide Index; updates forecast of 35% to 40% drop (peak to trough) done in Sept 07, reason now low long term interest rates will hold prices up until bottom in 2012.
Market OracleNadeem WalayatN/AJan 2009 36%UK2007-2011Tick
For Halifax Index updates; forecast of 15% drop for 08 done in August 07, bottom 2011.
IHS Global InsightHoward ArcherPhoto of Howard ArcherOct 2008 15%UK2009Tick
Global insight have further revised down their house price forecasts to show a fall of 15% in 2009.
NationwideGraham BealePhoto of Graham BealeSep 2008 25%UK2008-2010Tick
Nationwide CEO Graham Beale expects a 25% decline between 2008-2010 in UK housing market before any signs of a recovery.
Jonathan DavisN/ASep 2008 40-50 % UK2007-2011Tick
New forecast set at Sep 08. Given historical reference, global bank failures,credit restrictions and economic recession.
brightsale.co.ukJeremy HowardN/AAug 2008 0%UK2008-2009Tick
New research from BrightSale suggests that prices do not have much further to fall to bring them back to long-term equilibrium
Lloyds TSBEric DanielsPhoto of Eric DanielsJul 2008 5%UK2009Tick
Lloyds predict a further 5% fall for 2009 on top of their 10-15% fall prediction for 2008.
National Housing FederationDavid OrrPhoto of David OrrJul 2008 25%UK2008-2013Tick
National Housing Federation predicts that the average house price in England will rise by 25 per cent over the next five years to reach £274,700, despite fears of a housing market crash.
DeloitteRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJul 2008 33%UK2008-2010Tick
Deloitte now expect UK house prices to fall by about a third by the end of 2010 with severe adverse effects on household spending and investment.
SavillsJeremy HelsbyN/AJul 2008 25%London2008-2009Tick
The chief executive of Savills forecast house prices in London to fall 25 per cent by the end of next year.
GMOJeremy GranthamN/AJul 2008 50%UKNot statedTick
Jeremy Grantham of GMO, the $126-bn US investment fund, notes that UK house prices "could easily decline 50% from the peak, and at that lower level they would still be higher than they were in 1997 as a multiple of income!"
Capital EconomicsRoger BootlePhoto of Roger BootleJun 2008 35%UK2008-2010Tick
Revised forecast: House prices may fall up to 35pc over the next three years, Capital Economics has warned, in one of the bleakest forecasts yet for the UK's property market.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 1-3 % UK2009Tick
Minor falls predicted for 2009.
Jones Lang LaSalleJames ThomasPhoto of James ThomasMay 2008 7-9 % UK2010-2013Tick
Jones Lang LaSalle expect slow growth from 2010-2013.
Morgan StanleyDavid MilesPhoto of David MilesMar 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
David Miles, chief UK economist at Morgan Stanley predicts that house prices will fall by up to 20% over the next two years.
Numis SecuritiesJames HamiltonN/AMar 2008 30%UKNot statedTick
James states that "UK property prices remain 44% over valued we expect them to go to a discount to fair value." (44% over-valuation would result in a 30.55% price drop)
Boom Bust Fred HarrisonPhoto of Fred HarrisonJan 2008 30%UK2008-2012Tick
Fred Harrison predicted a drop of 20% in his book Boom Bust (2005) but he now believes the drop will be around 30%.
London School of EconomicsJohn Van ReenenPhoto of John Van ReenenJan 2008 20%UK2008-2009Tick
John Van Reenen, expected prices to fall 20% before bouncing back but he doesn't state a time period for this prediction.
London School of EconomicsWillem BuiterN/AJan 2008 30%UK2008-2009Tick
Mr Buiter says that on average, lower house prices don't make UK consumers worse off. They lose as owners but gain as renters.
Gordon is a MoronDr Vernon ColemanPhoto of Dr Vernon ColemanAug 2007 50%UKNot statedTick
Dr Vernon Coleman Predicts a 50% House Price Crash in his book "Gordon is a moron".

Predictions archive